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Technical Paper: Impact of Geological and Facility Uncertainties on Strategic Drilling and Facility Decisions

Society: SPE
Paper Number: 169878
Presentation Date: 2014
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Abstract

The Chinarevskoye field in Kazakhstan consists of a significant number of producing gas and oil reservoirs from several stratigraphic zones, with additional discoveries being appraised for commerciality and undiscovered resources being matured for exploration drilling. Process facilities including oil treatment, gas handling, and compression and export facilities were commissioned at the start of commercial production and then more capacity was added recently.

Detailed sub-surface models with risk modeling and uncertainties on and dependencies between geological parameters have been prepared to reflect the geological interpretations. The stochastic results based on Monte Carlo calculations provide distributions of in-place and recoverable resources. Similarly, detailed above-surface activity models with uncertainties on wells and facilities based on the sub-surface models have been prepared to model realistic development scenarios, including both existing and future production given capacity constraints. The stochastic results based on Monte Carlo calculations provide distributions of production profiles, cash flows, and net present values.

Based on these results, the alternative scenarios with exploration, appraisal, development, and production activities have been ranked. The main conclusion is that investments in additional exploration activities and production facilities can be expected to increase the profitability of the Chinarevskoye field, even under the latest Kazakhstan fiscal terms. In addition the optimum exploration well-drilling sequence has been identified.

The technical and economic assessments based on uncertainties and risks that have been ongoing over recent years have resulted in profitable strategic decisions for investments in additional exploration drilling, appraisal programs, and development of facilities for the Chinarevskoye field.

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